The success of the seer Nostradamus seems in large part a product of 
          his skillful use of ambiguity. Unlike the End-of-the-World visionaries 
          who specified the date and even time of Armageddon, only to revise the 
          details to disappointed followers the "day after," Nostradamus' predictions 
          contained sufficient  situational 
          ambiguity to avoid being clearly disproved. Describing the National 
          Debate Tournament of 2046 or even predicting its changes en route will 
          require all the visionary ambiguity the language can provide.
situational 
          ambiguity to avoid being clearly disproved. Describing the National 
          Debate Tournament of 2046 or even predicting its changes en route will 
          require all the visionary ambiguity the language can provide.
        One way of predicting 
          the future is rediscovering patterns of the past. If the curse of ignoring 
          history is having to relive it, perhaps examining the history of the 
          NDT may reveal ways in which reliving history can be more productive 
          or even enjoyable. Hence a vision of the future might well begin with 
          an examination of our past.
        The past five decades 
          of the National Debate Tournament have been ones of permanence and change 
          (Parson, 1995). With two major exceptions, the aspects of permanence 
          seem to dominate the tradition of the NDT. Among the permanent aspects 
          are fifty years of policy topics, and a format that has varied only 
          slightly over the years, first to include cross examination in the format, 
          and then to adjust the constructive speeches and rebuttals by one minute. 
          The tournament has varied in size, from a low of 32 teams to a high 
          of 78 teams. Current procedures have provided tournaments ranging from 
          72 to 78 teams.
        The methods of 
          team selection have varied over the years. Initially all teams were 
          chosen through geographic regions; later ten then sixteen first round 
          at-large teams were selected before district teams competed for bids. 
          More recently, up to sixteen second round at-large teams have been chosen 
          after district selection, and up to six of these teams could be third 
          teams from a participating school.
        Thus there have 
          been changes, but most changes have been minor or cosmetic in nature. 
          Two major events, however, have changed the tournament in substantial 
          ways. The first of these was the departure from West Point. When West 
          Point Commandant William Westmoreland informed George Ziegelmueller, 
          then President of the American Forensic Association that the Academy 
          would no longer host the tournament, the NDT began a pilgrimage across 
          the nation with a different host each year, and with a National Tournament 
          Committee in charge of the tournament and its selection process. The 
          NDT Committee also picked a tournament director, and in the 30 years 
          since leaving West Point the tournament has had ten directors.
        A second major 
          change affecting the National Debate Tournament was the development 
          of a second national tournament, one representing the Cross Exam Debate 
          Association (CEDA). Until 1996-7 the two tournaments chose different 
          topics, and programs generally engaged in only one type of debate, although 
          a few schools had programs in both areas. Occasionally NDT debaters 
          would enter the CEDA National Tournament, but given qualifying procedures, 
          CEDA debaters did not enter the NDT, since debaters needed a whole season 
          of participation on the NDT topic to qualify for its tournament. The 
          debate world was split: the resulting dialectic has had its share of 
          unpleasantness, much of it unnecessary.
        W(h)ither 
          the NDT?
        The NDT has maintained 
          a core of 80-100 subscribing schools. More realistically, 40-50 schools 
          have sent teams to the NDT during the past five years. As the number 
          of subscribing schools decreases, there is increasing pressure to increase 
          the number of teams from each school. Some invitational tournaments 
          have handled as many as 8-12 teams from an individual school. One argument 
          is that any team meeting NDT qualifications (such as a win-loss record, 
          or ranking by the NDT Committee) should be able to attend, regardless 
          of the school represented. In this way, the NDT would resemble many 
          of the current invitational tournaments.
        An extension of 
          this position is the "open" NDT with the possible limitation of teams 
          from any single school (such as three or four). This would change the 
          tournament in major ways, and probably decrease the number of judges 
          per round to two and possibly one. The number of teams invited might 
          well have an effect on the number of schools willing to host the tournament.
        One can find among 
          NDT coaches two quite different positions on the size of the tournament. 
          One group would move toward the more "open" NDT with possible limitations 
          on the size of the tournament. Another group would move in the opposite 
          direction, and reduce the size of the NDT, possibly to a maximum of 
          36-48 teams. These coaches would make the qualification process more 
          rigorous, with result that the very strongest teams would qualify. The 
          current practice of including sixteen first round teams, 46 teams through 
          the district process and up to sixteen second round at-large teams seems 
          to steer a middle course between these two positions.
        One of the major 
          questions to be answered is the effect of having both CEDA and NDT debating 
          the same topic area, or debating variations of the same topic. Thus 
          the 1996-7 year will provide an interesting test of its possibilities. 
          Debaters will thus be able to debate in both CEDA and NDT divisions. 
          In addition to providing debaters with broader debate experiences, programs 
          will have greater variety of tournament choices, and programs stretched 
          to the economic breaking point may breathe a bit easier. If students 
          debate one topic area in both divisions of debate, then perhaps students 
          can qualify for both the CEDA National Tournament and the NDT. Such 
          an eventuality has ramifications on the possible size and function of 
          both tournaments.
        An implication 
          of this suggestion is the presence of two national tournaments, one "open" to all teams which qualify and a second limited to a smaller 
          number of teams. Within this framework, the "open" tournament might 
          be prior to the second tournament, with qualifiers from the first tournament 
          receiving bids to the second tournament (perhaps all quarterfinalists, 
          or qualifiers). Such a scenario is only possible as coaches representing 
          CEDA and those representing NDT resolve outstanding differences and 
          work together on both tournaments. As choice is extended to students, 
          the quality of their forensic experience would increase. To see this 
          scenario enacted would require a continuing dialogue between representatives 
          of both organizations, but it is not difficult to visualize it in operation 
          in the early part of the twenty-first century.
        If the NDT has 
          had ten directors in the past 30 years, it has had 27 hosts. Only Jack 
          Rhodes who has hosted three NDTs and Chester Gibson with two NDTs had 
          hosted more than once. The reason is not difficult to fathom. In addition 
          to the time and effort demanded of the debate director and staff, the 
          cost to the school may reach $25,000 and beyond. One dean, familiar 
          to the author, encouraged his school to host the NDT: "It will be a 
          fine way to use your debate budget this year." As costs have escalated, 
          tournament fees have skyrocketed, from about $75 a team in 1976 to $275 
          in 1996. As a percentage of the typical debate budget, the NDT has increased 
          disproportionately, and most schools need additional funds to attend 
          the NDT. The NDT may not find sufficient schools able and willing to 
          expend large sums to host in the future.
        One potential answer 
          to the cost problem has prompted NDT Board of Trustees Chair Lee Polk 
          to initiate and endowment program involving former NDT debaters, coaches 
          and institutional members. An NDT that is not underwritten by its own 
          endowment in the next century will need to be a "stripped down" tournament 
          indeed.
        The computer age 
          has altered both tournaments and debaters' methods of research and preparation. 
          The NDT currently uses TAB ROOM ON THE MAC, a program created by Rich 
          Edwards of Baylor to administer the tournament. Invitational tournaments 
          use versions of the same program. Schools now set up LEXIS and NEXUS 
          connections for quick evidence search during tournaments; no longer 
          does a closed library on Sunday deter debaters. Most of these changes 
          have occurred during the last decade. Yet the use of computers in debate 
          may still be in a period of infancy. 
        What will be the 
          use of computers fifty years hence? One can envision a screen on which 
          the debater displays supporting evidence at the touch of a computer 
          button? Perhaps the computer will enable competition without travel 
          a sort of "briefing" system similar to moot law courts. Perhaps oral 
          advocacy will no longer be practiced in debate. Perhaps the 2046 NDT 
          can be conducted over the computer. But then in early 2047 a coach named 
          Northworth will suggest we scrap the whole system and invite a very 
          few teams to meet each other face-to-face and have a single competent 
          judge render a decision based on the arguments heard. It will seem revolutionary, 
          but worth a try. Or perhaps not.